Six Nation Survey Looks at Impact of Upcoming U.S. Election
on World
Hillary Clinton Regarded as Making the Best President and as
Most Likely to Win
ROCHESTER, N.Y. – December 11, 2007 – As the United
States gets ready to enter an election year, there are interesting differences
in the perceptions of adults in the five largest European countries, especially
compared to Americans, as to what the election may mean and how important it is.
Two-thirds of Americans (66%) and over half of Italians (55%), Germans (52%) and
Spaniards (51%) think the U.S. election is extremely or very important to people
in other countries as do a plurality (43%) of British adults. The French,
however, disagree, as just over one-third (38%) say the election is extremely or
very important to other countries.
When it comes to importance within their own country, the
French again stand out as just one in ten (11%) say the U.S. election will be
extremely or very important to people in France. Obviously, an overwhelming
majority in the U.S. (82%) believe this election will be extremely or very
important in their country. Just about one third of Italians (37%), Spaniards
(34%), Britons (33%) and Germans (30%) each think the U.S. election will be
extremely or very important to people in their country.
These are some of the results of a International Herald
Tribune/France 24/Harris Interactive survey conducted online by Harris
Interactive® among a total of 6,590 adults aged 16 to 64 within France,
Germany, Great Britain, Spain, the United States, and adults aged 18 to 64 in
Italy between November 1 and 14, 2007.
One of the interesting story lines with this U.S. election is
the possibility of two first – a female president and a black president. Over
half of adults in France (56%), Spain (56%), Germany (55%), and Italy (53%) as
well as a plurality (43%) in Great Britain, believe that electing a woman as
president would have a positive effect on the USA. Similar numbers in France
(57%), Germany (56%), Italy (53%), Spain (51%) and Great Britain (36%) believe
that electing a woman would have a positive effect on America’s relationship
with other countries. The one exception is in the U.S. Just three in ten (29%)
Americans believe electing a woman would have a positive effect on the USA while
one-quarter (26%) say it would have a negative effect and 23 percent believe it
would have equally positive and negative effects. When it comes to America’s
relationship with other countries, just under one-quarter (23%) say a female
president would have a positive effect, one-quarter (25%) an equally positive
and negative effect and three in ten (31%) a negative effect.
Looking at the possibility of the first black president, the
numbers are not as strong. Half of Spaniards (50%) and pluralities of French
(49%), Italians (44%), Germans (43%) and Britons (43%) believe electing a Black
man would have a positive effect on the USA. Again, Americans are less positive
as just one-third (33%) say this would have a positive effect while 28 percent
say the effect would be equally positive and negative. The numbers are similar
for the effect this would have on America’s relationship with other countries.
Pluralities in all five European countries (between 42% and 48%) believe the
effect would be positive while just 28 percent of U.S. adults believe the effect
would be positive on the relationship with other countries. In the U.S. and
Great Britain, adults are more positive towards a black president while in the
four other European countries, they are more positive towards a female
president.
In looking at who would make the best U.S. president (among
10 listed candidates) Hillary Clinton is the top choice in all six countries.
Barack Obama is second in France and Germany and tied for second with Rudy
Giuliani in the U.S. Rudy Giuliani comes in second in Italy, Spain, and Great
Britain. When it comes to who will actually win the 2008 Presidential election,
Hillary Clinton is again on top – in fact, over half of Italians (51%) believe
she will win. The only other candidate in double digits in any of the countries
is Rudy Giuliani and 11 percent of Americans believe he will actually win the
election.
Looking at the position of the U.S. in the world under
President Bush, there is a consensus – the position of the U.S. is weaker in
the world today then it was at the beginning of the Bush presidency. In fact,
Americans are the ones leading this charge as almost three in five (58%) of them
say weaker, followed by 57 percent of British adults and over half of Italians
(53%) and Germans (52%). Just under half (49%) of French adults and 46 percent
of Spaniards believe the same.
The new president, whoever he or she might be, inherits a
good deal of international concerns. As to the most urgent foreign policy issue
for the new president, for adults in five of the countries, Iraq comes out as
the top issue. Italy is the exception as Italians believe the Middle East
settlement is the most urgent issue, followed by Iran. Specifically on Iraq,
majorities in France (55%) and Spain (54%) and just under half in Italy (48%)
believe the new American president should withdraw all American troops from
Iraq. Those in Great Britain, Germany and the U.S. are split as to whether they
should withdraw the American troops or reduce the presence of troops without
completely withdrawing them.
The role the new president should play is one where those in
Europe agree on one idea, while those in the U.S. feel a little differently.
Two-thirds or more in the five European countries (between 65% and 77%) believe
the U.S. president should be an equal voice among all western leaders. In the
U.S., just under half (46%) also agree with this idea, but one-third of
Americans (34%) believe the new president should be the leader of the Western
world. This new president also has an important role in ensuring peace among the
nations. Majorities in Italy (70%), the U.S. (61%), Great Britain (53%) and
Spain (52%) as well as pluralities in Germany (48%) and France (44%) say the
U.S. has an extremely or very important role in ensuring peace among the nations
of the world.
One reason the U.S. needs to have such an important role is
many believe the U.S. poses a threat to world peace A majority in Spain (56%)
and pluralities in France (49%), Great Britain (48%) and Germany (48%) as well
as 37 percent in Italy believe the U.S. poses a major threat to world peace.
Even one-quarter (28%) in the U.S. believe the U.S. poses a major threat while
27 percent of Americans say the U.S. poses a minor threat to world peace.
So What?
As the U.S. gets ready to vote in the first caucuses and
primaries early next month, it is not just Americans who are looking at the
results of the election. Europeans are also focused in and believe the impact is
not only at least somewhat important to their countries, but also to people in
the world as a whole. The foreign policy issues the next president will have to
address are numerous, and potentially growing in number. Europeans also have
ideas as to what issues are most urgent. If the next president wants to
strengthen a position in the world that is uniformly believed to be weak, he or
she may want to listen to those from other countries as well.
TABLE 1
IMPORTANCE OF U.S. ELECTION TO WORLD
"How important do you think that this election will be to
people in other countries throughout the world?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
| |
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
IMPORTANT (NET) |
43 |
38 |
55 |
51 |
52 |
66 |
|
Extremely important |
12 |
6 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
26 |
|
Very important |
31 |
32 |
40 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
|
NOT IMPORTANT (NET) |
57 |
62 |
45 |
49 |
48 |
34 |
|
Somewhat important |
45 |
52 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
28 |
|
Not important |
12 |
11 |
4 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2
IMPORTANCE OF U.S. ELECTION TO INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES
"How important do you think that this election will be to
people in [France/Germany/Great Britain/ Italy/ Spain/ the U.S.]?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
| |
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
IMPORTANT (NET) |
33 |
11 |
37 |
34 |
30 |
82 |
|
Extremely important |
7 |
3 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
46 |
|
Very important |
26 |
8 |
30 |
28 |
25 |
36 |
|
NOT IMPORTANT (NET) |
67 |
89 |
63 |
66 |
70 |
18 |
|
Somewhat important |
51 |
53 |
50 |
55 |
54 |
15 |
|
Not important |
15 |
36 |
14 |
11 |
16 |
3 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3
POSSIBILITY OF FEMALE PRESIDENT
"For the first time in history, there is a real chance of
Americans electing a woman (e.g. Hillary Clinton) as President. In your
opinion, what effect would this have on the USA?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
POSITIVE EFFECT (NET) |
43 |
56 |
53 |
56 |
55 |
29 |
|
A very positive effect |
16 |
15 |
20 |
26 |
13 |
15 |
|
A somewhat positive effect |
27 |
41 |
33 |
30 |
42 |
14 |
|
Equally positive and negative effects
|
21 |
16 |
26 |
13 |
22 |
23 |
|
NEGATIVE EFFECT (NET) |
5 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
26 |
|
A somewhat negative effect |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
|
A very negative effect |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
* |
18 |
|
No effect |
10 |
8 |
5 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
|
Not sure |
21 |
18 |
11 |
17 |
12 |
15 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 4
POSSIBILITY OF FEMALE PRESIDENT
"For the first time in history, there is a real chance of
Americans electing a woman (e.g. Hillary Clinton) as President. In your
opinion, what effect would this have on the America’s relationship with
other countries?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
POSITIVE EFFECT (NET) |
36 |
57 |
53 |
51 |
56 |
23 |
|
A very positive effect |
14 |
15 |
19 |
21 |
13 |
12 |
|
A somewhat positive effect |
22 |
42 |
34 |
30 |
43 |
11 |
|
Equally positive and negative effects
|
23 |
18 |
24 |
15 |
22 |
25 |
|
NEGATIVE EFFECT (NET) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
31 |
|
A somewhat negative effect |
7 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
14 |
|
A very negative effect |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
17 |
|
No effect |
11 |
8 |
7 |
12 |
6 |
7 |
|
Not sure |
22 |
16 |
12 |
19 |
13 |
14 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 5
POSSIBILITY OF BLACK PRESIDENT
"For the first time in history, there is a real chance of
Americans electing a black man (e.g. Barack Obama) as President. In your
opinion, what effect would this have on the USA?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
POSITIVE EFFECT (NET) |
43 |
49 |
44 |
50 |
43 |
33 |
|
A very positive effect |
15 |
14 |
17 |
20 |
9 |
15 |
|
A somewhat positive effect |
28 |
35 |
27 |
31 |
34 |
18 |
|
Equally positive and negative effects
|
21 |
23 |
32 |
19 |
31 |
28 |
|
NEGATIVE EFFECT (NET) |
8 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
16 |
|
A somewhat negative effect |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
|
A very negative effect |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
8 |
|
No effect |
7 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
|
Not sure |
19 |
16 |
14 |
19 |
14 |
14 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 6
POSSIBILITY OF BLACK PRESIDENT
"For the first time in history, there is a real chance of
Americans electing a black man (e.g. Barack Obama) as President. In your
opinion, what effect would this have on the America’s relationship with
other countries?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
POSITIVE EFFECT (NET) |
42 |
48 |
45 |
47 |
44 |
28 |
|
A very positive effect |
13 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
8 |
10 |
|
A somewhat positive effect |
29 |
36 |
32 |
31 |
36 |
18 |
|
Equally positive and negative effects
|
23 |
22 |
27 |
17 |
26 |
30 |
|
NEGATIVE EFFECT (NET) |
6 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
14 |
|
A somewhat negative effect |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
|
A very negative effect |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
|
No effect |
9 |
9 |
7 |
11 |
9 |
11 |
|
Not sure |
20 |
18 |
16 |
22 |
17 |
17 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 7
WHO WOULD MAKE THE BEST PRESIDENT
"Of the following people who are running for President of
the U.S. in 2008, who do you think would make the best president?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
24 |
35 |
30 |
29 |
44 |
22 |
|
Barack Obama |
5 |
7 |
12 |
4 |
11 |
12 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
10 |
4 |
19 |
7 |
1 |
12 |
|
John Edwards |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
|
Mitt Romney |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
4 |
|
Bill Richardson |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
* |
- |
* |
* |
* |
3 |
|
John McCain |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
5 |
|
Fred Thompson |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
5 |
|
Joseph Biden |
- |
* |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
|
None of these candidates |
6 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
8 |
|
Don’t know any of these candidates |
11 |
14 |
5 |
9 |
6 |
2 |
|
Not sure |
41 |
35 |
29 |
43 |
32 |
20 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 8
WHO WILL WIN THE ELECTION
"Of the following people who are running for President of
the U.S. in 2008, who do you think will actually win the election?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
28 |
40 |
51 |
32 |
41 |
33 |
|
Barack Obama |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
5 |
3 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
11 |
|
John Edwards |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
3 |
|
Mitt Romney |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
- |
2 |
|
Bill Richardson |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
- |
|
Mike Huckabee |
- |
- |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
John McCain |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
Fred Thompson |
* |
* |
- |
* |
* |
2 |
|
Joseph Biden |
* |
* |
* |
- |
- |
* |
|
Don’t know any of these candidates |
11 |
12 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
1 |
|
Not sure |
51 |
41 |
30 |
50 |
45 |
38 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
*Less Than 0.5%
- No response
TABLE 9
POSITION OF U.S. IN WORLD UNDER GEORGE BUSH
"Do you think the position of the USA in the world is
stronger or weaker today than at the beginning of the Bush presidency?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
STRONGER (NET) |
8 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
17 |
|
It is certainly stronger |
1 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
|
It is probably stronger |
7 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
|
It is the same |
18 |
24 |
21 |
25 |
16 |
14 |
|
WEAKER (NET) |
57 |
49 |
53 |
46 |
52 |
58 |
|
It is probably weaker |
35 |
37 |
39 |
31 |
35 |
26 |
|
It is certainly weaker |
21 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
17 |
31 |
|
Not sure |
17 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
12 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 10
THE NEW PRESIDENT AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
"What should be the most urgent foreign policy
issue for the new American President, when he or she is elected in November
2008?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Iraq |
29 |
28 |
17 |
28 |
31 |
33 |
|
Middle East Settlement |
17 |
24 |
38 |
23 |
20 |
13 |
|
Iran and the nuclear issue |
13 |
16 |
18 |
14 |
16 |
18 |
|
Relations between the U.S. and Europe |
3 |
5 |
2 |
9 |
5 |
2 |
|
Relations between the U.S. and Russia |
4 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
|
Relations between the U.S. and China |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
|
Relations between the U.S. and North Korea |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
Other |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
|
Not sure |
26 |
16 |
11 |
16 |
15 |
18 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 11
NEW U.S. PRESIDENT AND IRAQ
"What should the new American President do regarding
Iraq?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Withdraw the American troops from Iraq |
37 |
55 |
48 |
54 |
38 |
36 |
|
Reduce the presence of the American troops in Iraq, without completely
withdrawing them |
38 |
29 |
33 |
26 |
39 |
33 |
|
Maintain the presence of the American troops in Iraq |
5 |
2 |
7 |
4 |
6 |
15 |
|
Reinforce the presence of the American troops in Iraq |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
Not sure |
17 |
13 |
8 |
14 |
14 |
11 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 12
NEW PRESIDENT AND WESTERN LEADERS
"What role should the new U.S. President play in today’s
Western world?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
He/She should be an equal voice among all Western leaders |
70 |
65 |
73 |
72 |
77 |
46 |
|
He/She should follow other Western leaders |
5 |
18 |
7 |
9 |
5 |
1 |
|
He/She should be the leader of the Western world |
6 |
4 |
10 |
5 |
7 |
34 |
|
Not sure |
19 |
13 |
10 |
14 |
12 |
19 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 13
NEW PRESIDENT AND PEACE IN THE WORLD
"How important a role does the U.S. have in ensuring
peace among the nations of the world?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
EXTREMELY/VERY IMPORTANT (NET) |
53 |
44 |
70 |
52 |
48 |
61 |
|
Extremely important |
12 |
10 |
25 |
15 |
12 |
24 |
|
Very important |
40 |
34 |
45 |
37 |
36 |
37 |
|
Somewhat important |
41 |
48 |
28 |
35 |
43 |
35 |
|
Not important |
6 |
8 |
3 |
13 |
9 |
4 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 14
U.S. AS A THREAT TO PEACE
"How much of a threat does the U.S. pose to peace among
the nations of the world?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
A major threat to world peace |
48 |
49 |
37 |
58 |
48 |
28 |
|
A minor threat to world peace |
28 |
28 |
27 |
17 |
32 |
27 |
|
No threat to world peace |
8 |
13 |
25 |
15 |
11 |
24 |
|
Not sure |
16 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
22 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Methodology
This IH/France 24/Harris Interactive survey was
conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,590 adults (aged
16-64) within France (1,075), Germany (1,114), Great Britain (1,117), Spain
(1,076) and the United States (1,108) and adults (aged 18-64) in Italy (1,100)
between 1 and 14 November 2007. Figures for age, sex, education, region and
Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their
actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to
adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use
probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most
often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage
error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording
and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore,
Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are
misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors
with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100%
response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close
to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those
who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been
weighted to reflect the composition of the adult populations of the respective
countries. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the
Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be
calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of
the National Council on Public Polls and of the British Polling Council.
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Harris Interactive Inc. 11/07
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